Every golfer in the field at Royal Birkdale technically has a chance to win The Open Championship. That’s what makes major championships so unpredictable.
I’m usually hesitant to put too much stock into trends. Golf is a game where one bad bounce, one gust of wind, or one unforgettable final round can completely change the outcome. But sometimes a pattern becomes too strong to ignore.
That’s the case with a fascinating trend shared by GolfRamble on X, one of the best follows for golf statistics and major championship data.
According to GolfRamble, the last 12 winners of The Open Championship all shared a similar profile before lifting the Claret Jug. Each champion had:
A previous top-two finish in a major championship
At least three top-15 finishes in their previous five starts
A ranking inside the top 40 in the Official World Golf Ranking
A top-three finish on the PGA Tour during that season
A previous top-20 finish at The Open (if they had competed in the championship before)
It’s a pretty specific checklist — and history has rewarded players who fit the mold.
Last year, four golfers entered The Open matching every requirement: Scottie Scheffler, Bryson DeChambeau, Keegan Bradley, and J.J. Spaun. By Sunday evening, Scheffler was the one celebrating after winning at Royal Portrush.
Now, the question becomes: who fits the profile at Royal Birkdale?
This year, eight players check every box:
Scottie Scheffler
Rory McIlroy
Matt Fitzpatrick
Wyndham Clark
Justin Rose
Viktor Hovland
Robert MacIntyre
Tom Kim
If this decade-plus trend continues, the next Champion Golfer of the Year will likely come from that group.
Of course, trends aren’t guarantees. Golf has a long history of proving predictions wrong. A player outside this list could catch fire, embrace the challenge of links golf, and create a new piece of history at Royal Birkdale.
But if you’re looking for a statistical shortcut before the opening tee shots in Southport, these eight names might be the place to start.
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